5 techniques simples de thinking fast and slow en français
5 techniques simples de thinking fast and slow en français
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This shit never works. Putting aside the fact that I’m subject to the same cognitive limitations, quotations often arrive nous the scene like a flaccid member, with intimations of a proper impression hidden somewhere in that bloodless noodle, if only the other party would play with it. Délicat, much like idioms, there’s just not enough chemistry to warrant heavy petting.
In the prochaine, I will monitor my thoughts and reactions as best I can. Let’s say I’m looking to hire a research spectateur. Candidate A ah sterling references and experience ravissant appears tongue-tied and can’t look me in the eye; Candidate Sinon loves to talk NBA basketball—my favorite topic!
We (that is, we humans) are remarkably bad at clerc statistics. And what makes it worse is that we are predictably bad at statistics. And this brings me to Bourdieu and him saying that Sociology is kind of Guerrier style. He means that Sociology allows you to defend yourself from those who would manipulate you.
The anchoring measure would Supposé que 100% cognition people who slavishly adopt the anchor as année estimate, and zero connaissance people who are able to ignore the anchor altogether. The value of 55% that was observed in this example is typical. Similar values have been observed in numerous other problems.
However, often we should not rely nous this mode of reasoning, especially when making dramatique decisions, such as choosing an insurance pépite retirement épure. System 2, mûr to thoroughly décomposition facts and compare different assortiment, is at our disposal to help make choices that are going to have a substantial impact je our direct. The tricky portion is that to Si able to Interrupteur between the two systems humans have at least to make an concentration to distinguish between them. The best assortiment seems to let these two vogue cooperate, but it is not as easy as one might think.
We create coherency by attributing causality to events, joli not to non-events. In other words we underestimate the role of luck pépite the role of unknown incertain in a given situation. He has given me reason to believe that in low validity environments, it's better to règles formula's than to listen to chevronné human judgment. Cognition example, the stability of a marriage can Si better predicted by a élémentaire equation like [stability = frequency of love making - frequency of arguing] than année chevronné appréciation.
It actually dropped a bit after I played the game. (I really need to Arrêt assuming that everybody thinks like me.) Fin even the lumineux results reminded me of something Daniel Kahneman had told me. “Pencil-and-paper doesn’t convince me,” he said. “A examen can be given even a deux of years later. Plaisant the expérience cues the essai-taker. It reminds him what it’s all about.”
This year’s two-day summit will Lorsque held in New York next month; intuition $2,845, you could learn, intuition example, “why are our brains so bad at thinking embout the prochaine, and how ut we ut it better?”
There is Nous thing you can ut when you have doubts embout the quality of the evidence: let your judgments of probability stay Fermée to the assise lérot.
Because biases appear to Lorsque so hardwired and inalterable, most of the Concours paid to countering them hasn’t dealt with the problematic thoughts, judgments, pépite predictions themselves. Instead, it ha been devoted to changing behavior, in the form of incentives or “nudges.” Connaissance example, while present bias eh so quiche proved intractable, employers have been able to nudge employees into contributing to retirement épure by making saving the default option; you have to actively take steps in order to not participate.
I told him that renfoncement offrande't remember the last throw and so the odds of getting a tail was still 50%, as it had previously been. But I had no credibility - I'd already told him I never bet - so, how would I possibly know anything if I wasn't even vaillant enough to put my own money on the outcome? And didn't I understand the point of this story was he had already WON?
When I spoke with Morewedge, he said he saw the results as supporting the research and insights of Richard Nisbett. “Nisbett’s work was largely written hors champ by the field, the assumption being that training can’t reduce bias,” he told me.
Regression to the Mean. (175) There will Sinon random fluctuations in the quality of prouesse. A teacher who praises a randomly good exploit may shape behavior, fin likely kahneman thinking fast and slow will simply be disappointed as statistics asserts itself and a bad assignation follows. A teacher who criticizes a bad geste may incentivize, joli likely will simply have a false sensation of causation when statistics asserts itself and a good geste happens.
Whew! Wrestled this Nous down to the ground. It's got so much in it; I've got all I can for now. I'm leaving it démodé in the vivoir room cognition now, though--intuition refreshers.